Property Trends 2025: Picking Yael Geffen’s Brain
The residential property market is a key component to the economic health of a country, painting a picture of the financial and demographic trends driving the economy. We spoke to Yael Geffen, CEO of Lew Geffen Sotheby’s, for her insights.
Q&A With Yael Geffen
HL: Is brick and mortar a fail-safe investment in the present economic market?
YG: You head to port in a storm, right? There’s a reason for that – ports are the very embodiment of brick and mortar. There’s enduring appeal in homeownership and that goes double for a country like ours where so many people have never been able to get into the market. That’s, however, been changing in a big way and, as a single mother, I’m immensely proud of the fact that women make up the bulk of first-time home buyers in South Africa.
HL: Are there any significant changes to the market since the decrease in inflation rates this year? Has the lower interest rate led to increased sales and demand?
YG: By decreasing interest rates, you mean a sucker punch, right? There’s no other phrase for giving with one hand and taking with the other, as we’ve seen with interest rates going down a tiny bit, but knowing a shoe is going to drop. And, as a rule, it’s a big shoe, like a tariff increase of nearly 13% from Eskom.
FNB’s most recent Property Barometer indicates that the first quarter of 2025 saw a notable rise in optimism among real estate professionals in general, with activity levels hitting their highest point in three years. Despite this improved sentiment, actual market performance remains subdued. We need interest rates to drop more before they’ll directly influence the market again.
HL: What are the buying trends in terms of bigger VS smaller homes?
YG: Much of the market is looking at downsizing, which is extremely sensible given the national economic outlook. Own what you can afford, rather than stretching your budget beyond reasonable limits.
HL: What are the buying trends in terms of sectional title VS free standing properties?
YG: Sectional title is the clear sentiment winner right now, from a security and lifestyle point of view.
HL: What are the buying trends in terms of alternate power solutions?
YG: People want homes that save on consumption of all municipal services. It’s a no-brainer in the current economy.
HL: With a large part of SA market not being able to access financing, has there been a significant increase in rentals?
YG: The market is largely moving towards buying, because consumers want to build their own economic stability. Data from Payprop at the end of last year showed that rental growth has remained in the 4.5% to 5% range, with many tenants going smaller to save for deposits on properties. The larger the deposit buyers have in hand, the more favourably lending institutions will view bond applications at the end of the day.
HL: What does the property market currently reveal about migration trends? Is it true that, “everyone is moving to the coast?” Where are the current buying hotspots or, is a ‘reverse migration’ (which is also spoken of), already taking place?
YG: Yes, the coast is still massively popular, but the latest buzz phrase is ‘reverse migration,’ which is exactly what it says on the tin – people moving back inland. It is true that the Western Cape is still top of the semigration ratings, but prices in the Cape Town metropolitan area have shot up to a level that puts buying out of reach for much of the local market.
HL: Have housing prices recovered fully since Covid and the global financial crises?
YG: No. Indices show we’re currently trailing by about 16%. This road to recovery is a marathon, not a sprint.
HL: What are the present challenges in the commercial office, industrial and retail market?
YG: The office sector continues to face challenges, with vacancy rates exceeding 20% in major cities. The shift to hybrid work models has reduced corporate demand, leading to an oversupply. To combat declining demand, many older office buildings are being repurposed into residential apartments, co-living spaces or student accommodations.
The industrial sector is currently the best-performing segment of South Africa’s commercial property market. Demand for warehousing, logistics parks and light industrial spaces remains strong, driven by the rapid growth of e-commerce.
South Africa’s retail market reveals neighbourhood and convenience centres performing better than large regional malls. Smaller retail centres – anchored by grocers, pharmacies and essential services – are proving more resilient.
HL: In which property segment does Lew Geffen Sotheby’s see its greatest growth or potential for 2025?
YG: The super luxury property band is important to us, because it’s a market we have always successfully serviced. This segment is far more resilient to economic movement. We’re also seeing a lot of movement in the R4m to R10m price band. It’s where most of the market is playing now.
HL: What are your tips and/or advice for those considering buying and selling properties presently?
YG: For buyers, focus on properties in high-demand areas. With interest rates still elevated, securing pre-approval will strengthen your negotiating position. Be prepared to negotiate aggressively, especially on properties that have been listed for extended periods, as some sellers may accept lower offers to secure a sale.
For sellers, realistic pricing is crucial in today’s market. Highlight your property’s unique selling points and work with an experienced agent.
For investors, industrial and logistics properties remain the strongest performers, driven by e-commerce and supply chain demand.
HL: What is Lew Geffen Sotheby’s unique brand proposition with so many real estate agencies operating in the current market?
YG: The word ‘iconic’ is somewhat overused nowadays. If you want the purest definition of the word, it’s the name Sotheby’s. It was first listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in 1988, becoming the oldest publicly traded company on the NYSE. In South Africa, we hold the highest average national unit sales price (30% over) and have done so for 24 years. The brand is aspirational to all audiences, especially since we have sold the most international celebrities’ homes. Correction – sold homes to them, then resold them when they’ve wanted to upgrade or relocate.
